Baseline Study & Mapping of Electoral Conflict Driver and Risk Assessment -ECCES Programme (REF: ACT-BSM-03-2022)

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1.0 Background

Act Change Transform (Act!) is a not-for profit non-governmental organization that was established in Kenya in September 2001 and registered under the provisions of Non-Governmental Organizations Coordination Act of 1990. With an organizational vision of empowered communities living productive lives in dignity, Act! focuses on building the capacity of individuals and communities, thus empowering them to get involved in the decisions and management of their own development.

Act! approaches its development work through three broad programmatic areas; 1) Peace Building and Conflict Transformation, 2) Democracy and Human Rights, 3) Environment and Natural Resources.

Act! through its Democracy and Human Rights (DHR) program received funding from USAID KEA to implement the Kenya Electoral Conflicts Mitigation and Civic/Voter Education Support (ECCES) Programme. In this Programme, Act! is leading a consortium of three Kenyan development organizations with rich collective expertise and experience of more than 50 years collectively in the areas of Democracy, Governance and Human Rights, Civil Society Strengthening and Gender in Kenya. URAIA Trust is the co-applicant, while our Strategic Implementing Partner is the National Youth Bunge Association. The ECCES Programme will be implemented in 18 Counties in Kenya, namely: - Mombasa, Kilifi, Garissa, Isiolo, Kiambu, Uasin-Gishu, Nandi, West Pokot, Laikipia, Tana-River, Nakuru, Migori, Kisumu, Bungoma, Kwale, Kajiado, TransNzoia & Nairobi. The Programme purposes to address the following: (1). Elections violence and its impacts on inclusion, participation of women, youth and persons with disability as candidates and voters; (2). Misinformation, disinformation and withholding of key elections information (political manipulation) critical for effective participation of all eligible citizens as voters and candidates; (3). Delayed and sometimes poorly managed voter and civic education that has marginalized youth, women and PWDs as voters/candidates; (4). Weak participation of civil society, women and youth in other democratic processes around (pre and post) the elections; and (5). Human rights violations and securing justice for victims of electoral conflicts/violence.

In view of the above, Act! intends to conduct a baseline study and mapping of electoral conflict drivers and risk assessment to help provide an update on the current structures on conflict mitigation and management, civic/voter education and existence of real threats electoral violence in the Counties.

In this regard, Act! seeks to engage the services of a consultant (s) to conduct this survey.

2.0 Justification for the Baseline Study & Mapping of Electoral Conflict Drivers and Risk Assessment

All elections in conflict-prone settings entail risks.[1] These risks ought to be proactively identified and assessed primarily to advise the delivery of programmes. Under the ECCES Program, activities around conflict early warning and response, electoral conflicts mediation, county/community conversations on peaceful elections, and, peace campaigns, will need to be advised by a current conflict sensitivity and risk assessment analysis. The sensitivities around the electoral process are such that all players need to understand the context in which they are operating, and appreciate the interaction between their engagements and the context, and to take action to avoid negative impacts and maximize positive impacts. To this end, the analysis will also advise partners delivering on the Kenya Inclusive Governance, Accountability, Performance, Participation (Kenya-IGAPP), stakeholders and the media,

Act! has not only conducted a number of conflict analysis studies under its various programming, but is also rolling out a rapid pre-election political economy analysis (PEA) under the ECCES Program. This conflict sensitivity and risk assessment complements these studies, and the ensuing report acts as a risk management tool. This Conflict Sensitivity and Risk Assessment Report will speak to programming within the 2022 electoral conflict context.

The conflicts mapping component will involve updating the status of things and checking the existence of real threats to electoral violence. The exercise will build on some efforts around the Kenya 2017 elections cycle, and possibly post that period. Act! under the USAID-KEAP together with other actors under the Uwiano Platform for Peace (code 108) undertook conflicts mapping exercises in a total of 26 counties out of 47. The objectives of the mapping were: (1) to assess the key and emerging conflict dynamics, including possible drivers’/root causes (2) to map civil society organizations (CSOs), community based peace committees and other agencies actively promoting peace, cohesion and integration in the counties (3) to examine existing early warning and early response mechanisms in the counties; and (4) to provide a gender aggregated analysis of the peace and security structures in those counties. This exercise will entail a rapid analysis of all recent findings, update areas where none has been done within the last 12 months and consolidate all findings into one mapping report, and discuss the trends with key national and county-based stakeholders. This is aimed at validating the findings, prioritizing them and identifying response strategies. This cycle could be repeated in the run-up to the elections date and soon after. The validations will identify at-risk groups and other actors to be engaged along the duration of the program implementation in the electoral violence mitigation, prevention and rapid response activities. The findings will constantly enable the ECCES and other IGAPP Programs to identify areas where the threats are elevated and to determine the nature of interventions and support that would best mitigate/prevent or address them.

3.0 Objectives of the Conflict Analysis, Risk Assessment and Mapping

The objective of the assignment is to consolidate a risk management tool that advises programming within the 2022 election and enables actors to implement electoral conflict prevention and mitigation interventions and enhance the participation of CSOs, women and youth in democratic processes around elections.

Towards this end, the survey will:

Assess and update the key and emerging conflict dynamics, including possible drivers’/root causes related to the forthcoming August 2022 elections;

Map Conflict Management Panel (CMPs) checking their current status and functionality, map other community based peace committees and other agencies actively promoting peace, cohesion and integration in the counties;

Examine existing early warning and early response mechanisms in the 18 counties of target;

Determine status of custom indicators in the MERL plan.

4.0 Proposed Approach

The approach will involve among others desk research and field visits/research. The draft Report will also gain from the input of stakeholders at the validation workshop.

The detailed approach will be as follows:

a) Desk Research: The consultant will undertake literature review of the recent conflict analysis and risk and mapping assessments that have been carried out by Act! and other actors. Any gaps identified especially regarding electoral conflicts will inform the field research.

b) Field Research: Based on the justification above, and other electoral environment considerations contained in ECCES reports, the Consultant will suggest a list of the counties and will collect data using a variety of methods including questionnaires, key informant interviews, focus group discussions, sample survey, observation and photography among others. The data will be collected from government institutions and officials, CSOs, community leaders, women, youth, among others.

c) Validation workshop: The consultant will produce a report and present it to stakeholders in a validation meeting and the feedback used to finalize the reports.

5.0 Reporting and Supervision

The consultant will work under the overall supervision of the ECCES Chief of Party with support from M&E Specialist and other ECCES Programme staff. The deliverables will be assessed against the provisions of this scope of work set for the assignment.

6.0 Deliverables

a) Draft Report: This report will contain all the components of the survey: baseline indicator survey, conflict analysis, risk assessment, and a mapping report. It will have detailed information analysing and updating the findings on CMPs status, functionality and composition, existing peace structures as well as their past intervention experience in the counties of operation. The report will also outline existing county-based early warning and response systems/mechanisms, assess their effectiveness and highlight their plans towards mitigating and responding to conflict situation in the electioneering period. The status of the custom indicators in the ECCES AMERL plan determined through a representative sample survey will also be included. This report will be reviewed by Act! staff and subjected to stakeholder review during a validation workshop.

b) Facilitation of Stakeholder Review Validation Workshop:** The draft Report will be reviewed by Act! and subjected to stakeholder review during a validation workshop to be facilitated by the Consultant.

c) Final Conflict Analysis, Risk Assessment and Mapping Report: A final report incorporating comments from both the Act! reviewers and the validation workshop will be submitted to Act!

d) Detailed Mapping: This will include contact information of CMPs (where they exist) or proposed CMP members with names, positions, phone numbers and emails, key community leaders and CSOs engaged in electoral conflict mitigation and management activities. Equally, the mapping should include details of other elections programs in the country and what they are doing in order to avoid duplication or to create synergies.

7.0 Duration of the Assignment

Upon contracting, this assignment will be carried out over February and March 2022.

8.0 Qualification of Applicant

The applicant or Team should have a minimum of a Master’s degree in social sciences especially political science, law, monitoring and evaluation or related courses and at least 10 years’ experience in research and/in managing and evaluating Governance programmes.

[1] The Rapid Political Economic Analysis will demonstrate this within the context of 2022 electoral politics and processes.

Submission on the Expression of Interest/Responses to TORs

Suitable qualified consultants/firms are requested to submit their technical and financial proposal of not more than 8 pages interpreting their understanding of the Terms of Reference, elaborating the proposed methodology, workplan including qualifications of team that will undertake the task with CVs of lead consultant/s. The financial proposal should indicate both the cost of logistics and the consultant(s) fees. The same should only be submitted electronically to hr.admin@act.or.ke quoting the reference number (ACT-BSM-03-2022) not later than 5:00 pm (East African Time) Wednesday16thFebruary,2022.

All materials to be developed under this assignment are property of Act! and may not be reproduced under any circumstances.

Act! is an equal opportunity employer with zero tolerance to corruption